The realistic odds at each pathway level. The honest numbers.

Someone told you your child has a chance. A coach, a club director, a relative who once played, a Sunday-morning observer at the park. The phrasing varies. The implication is the same: there is a pathway, and your child might be on it. The question parents almost never ask out loud, because asking feels disloyal to the kid, is the honest one: what does "a chance" actually mean in numbers? How many kids are in the system, how many roster spots are at the top, and how many transitions are there in between? The answer is not a verdict on your child. It is a piece of information you are entitled to, and once you have it, the decisions you make about training, money, time, schools, and family scheduling get sharper. Here are the numbers, presented without dramatics.